Approaching The Endgame For Ukraine

When I was a kid, my dad taught to play chess. He only taught the basic rules and taught me after that through experience. He would quickly beat me until I learned to stop him. By my teen years, we would often play 3 games and I usually won 2 games. It was never too easy.

In chess there are 3 phases: opening, mid-game, and endgame. The game plays very differently depending upon the phase. Once the game is clearly approaching an inevitable conclusion, it is often best to concede instead of dragging things out.

Once in awhile, just before the end game, a player will realize they are at risk of losing and engage in highly aggressive movies in a risky effort to gain an advantage instead of a loss. A player could go nuclear and trade out a bunch of pieces in hoped of changing the dynamic.

When I was in college, I participated in wargaming clubs. We would meet Saturday mornings and play boardgames for hours. I rarely missed a week unless there was an early football game.

Some weeks we played simple fun games that had a lot of luck. Some weeks we played games that were extremely complex and would take most of the day. We often preferred complex games which required lots of interaction.

The players were mostly the same so we learned each other tendencies. Some played ultra cautious. Others carelessly. Some had master plans the developed while others went with the moment.

I remember going to a gaming convention with my college’s board gaming club and making the final table for one of my favorite games. I was on the way to win tournament, but I got extended and vulnerable. My allies then betrayed me. My luck left me. And the rest of the players used that opportunity to hurt me without eliminating me.

In theory, 1st place was still available, but I couldn't see the path. I likely wouldn't have done worse than 3rd out of 6 no matter what.

This was a game where there was a high risk of everyone losing. It was very possible to have no winners in the game, so the betrayal was a huge risk, but they thought it was the only way for them to stop me from winning. The way they betrayed me made defeat for everyone more likely. For the other players, having everyone lose was a better outcome, versus having me win.

Finally, it was too much for me. I went out in a blaze of glory, using a rule to eliminate myself. I decided it was better to cause everyone to lose rather than have them to get away with their betrayal.

So, cool story, but how does this relate to Ukraine.

As many have discussed for 19 or so months, the war started in 2014 with Maidan. Victoria Nuland got her new, Western-oriented government, which was part of a long- range plan to bring Ukraine into NATO and weaken Russia.

The initial Russian response was to annex Crimea and support, in a fashion, the breakaway provinces in the Donbass, but avoid direct war between Ukraine and Russia. There was a civil war, in large part because the Russian speaking parts in Ukraine refused to accept the coup. The Minsk Accords were designed to bring peace.

Thanks to Angela Merkel, we know now that Ukraine and its allies negotiated in bad faith. They just wanted time to build up a big enough army to conquer the Donbass. That was the entire early game.

The mid game started with Ukraine planning to attack in 2022, pushed by NATO. Russia attacked prior to the planned assault, much like Hitler had done to the Soviet Union in 1941. Russia didn't attack with enough troops to conquer Ukraine, and the initial “Special Military Operation” was clearly designed to push negotiations and to prevent the Ukraine army invasion of the Donbass.

The mid game is now over. And we are now at the most dangerous phase of the war. Ukraine cannot win. NATO cannot win. The best case for them is a frozen conflict. I wrote about that in April.

The reality is that Russia can conquer all of Ukraine and there is nothing except nuclear war to prevent that.

You might be saying, “Wow, that is a bold statement!” And yet, that is where we are.

The grand Ukrainian offensive to the south, designed to reach Crimea, was a complete failure and has yet to make any significant progress through Russia’s well-prepared defenses. The various supercool high-tech NATO weapons are mostly insignificant. The sanctions failed. BRICS are growing and the grand American empire is on verge of collapse.

The main thing preventing that outcome is Putin’s restraint. He restrained because contrary to the US, Putin believes in international law and he believes in minimizing casualties.

And plus, he really does not want western Ukraine full of various Ukrainian extremists. He just wants that section demilitarized and under a puppet government—his puppet. He already has the very hostile Baltic states on his border, as well the ultranationalist Poles nearby.

Putin would prefer to have a neutral rump Ukraine to having to pacify the entire country. And that is likely the ultimate source of why Putin holds back. He still hopes for a peaceful solution, though I doubt he believes one is possible while the Biden regime is in power.