Is War Spreading To Moldova Soon?

Moldova is a small country between Ukraine and Romania. Historically, it was conquered by Czarist Russia in the 19th century. Prior to that, it had been a vassal state to the Ottoman Empire. Under the Soviet Union, it had various forms.

Part of Moldova has refused to be part of the rest of the country since the end of the Soviet Union. The eastern part of the country, which lies on the east side of the Dniester River, is called Transnistria or the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, which had never really been part of any ancient Moldovan state and most of which had been part of Poland-Lithuania until the Partitions of Poland. It, like much of southern Ukraine, was largely unpopulated prior to becoming part of the Russia in 1792. Yes, the Russians have controlled this region since George Washington was in his first term as president.

Transnistria as it is today has existed since 1990, when the people in the area hoped to remain with the Soviet Union as the rest of the country wanted to be reunited with Romania. A conflict broke out, but there has been a ceasefire since 1992.

About a half a million people live in Transnistria and the largest population groups are Russians. One of the reasons Transnistria managed to stay independent is that a large Soviet army, the 14th Guards Army, was based there and remained there. There are large weapons depots there, which had 42,000 tons of weapons and ammo 30 years ago. About half of that remains. There are about 10,000 or so troops in Transnistria between Russia troops (officially peacekeepers) and PMR troops.

The US has been agitating about Transnistria on and off for the last 30 years. Moldova recently had a change of government, and the new leader has started agitating about Transnistria. Reports are also out that Ukraine is massing troops on the border.

Ukraine invading Transnistria would make sense, in theory. Ukraine could acquire, about 20,000 tons of Soviet weapons and ammo if successful, which would help Ukraine fight Russia. It would also provide Ukraine with a victory which it badly needs.

The problem is that Russia will likely blow up the weapons depots if Ukraine invades. It would not really provide Ukraine with anything. It would provoke Russia, though. Such an invasion would end 30 years of peace in the area.

Some have put forth that Russia to take Ukrainian territory up to the border with Transnistria. This would allow Russia to annex Transnistria along with the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine. Reaching Transnistria was in striking distance early in the war, but it would be difficult from the east except in a total victory.

Russia could reach Transnistria from the north, by coming from Belarus and west of Kiev, thereby cutting the country in half and effectively cutting Ukraine off from being resupplied. This has been a suggested line of attack for the upcoming Russian offensive by some. That would likely provoke the biggest response from NATO, while risking Russian troops.

Meanwhile, US troops are in close by Romania. In a truly foolish scenario, US troops would parachute into Transnistria in an effort to secure the arms depots, while Ukrainian and Moldovan troops attack from both sides. Such a direct US involvement would surely widen the war. Biden is dumb enough to do that.