Leopards, Tigers, and Abrams, Oh My!
We have recently watched as the West pressured Germany into sending its own Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, as well as allowing other countries to do the same.
Tanks have not been that useful in Ukraine, especially with modern drones and anti-tank weapons, which have killed hundreds if not thousands of tanks on each side. Tanks are not cheap, so each tank represents a significant financial commitment. Ukraine had a very large tank park prior to the war, so its need for new tanks shows that it has lost many tanks. Russia had even more tanks and has been using Cold War era tanks for the most part in the conflict, which have had only partial usefulness. It still has vast numbers of tanks that it can put into action.
Tanks also are mostly for offensives, not defense. It takes a substantial amount of time to train troops in successful use of a new tank model. Tanks also struggle when off road. They use a lot of fuel and need lots of support vehicles and trained support personnel. In comparison, modern artillery has been extremely effective in Ukraine, especially when combined with modern electronic technology.
American tank strategies largely depend upon the assumption that the United States has air supremacy. In the wars against Iraq, the United States had complete air supremacy and also had engaged in massive bombing of Iraqi positions prior to moving the tanks forward. US tanks could be confident that US aircraft were available to provide support to ground offensives, especially the A-10 which was designed to devastate Soviet tank forces and has proven to be extremely durable even after taking substantial hits. NATO tank forces will not have that air support in Ukraine.
Russia has used its artillery, not tanks, to devastate Ukrainian fortified positions in the Donbass. It has created a true meatgrinder where Ukrainian forces have been slaughtered. Russian forces are currently advancing not because of its tanks, but with infantry supported by artillery. Neither side is using a substantial number of aircraft outside of unmanned drones, as the air defenses are extremely capable, especially the Russian air defense.
Why was there this huge push to bring Leopard 2 tanks into the conflict?
The Leopard 2 is not a new tank, though it is modern main battle tank, and a few thousand have been sold across Europe. It is designed to be operated by conscript soldiers, so it has less training time compared to the Abrams. It is lighter and faster as well and uses diesel and is more fuel efficient.
There are several reasons for the recent incessant demand for the Leopard 2 tanks.
To help Ukraine in the planned summer counteroffensive — the tanks will not be in place any time soon. If Ukraine is going to make any counterattack this year, it will need to have tanks in place for later in the year.
The US is also trying to make its allies/protectorates dependent on US equipment. By having Leopard 2 tanks fight in Ukraine, these countries will need to replace them with US Abrams tanks. Switching brands requires an entire switch of logistics and supplies to support these vehicles. The Abrams requires substantially more training and support than most other tanks, so it makes it much more expensive to own.
It weakens Germany. Part of the goal of this entire war has been to hurt the German economy and prevent Germany from working with Russia. Keeping Germany down has been a goal of the US sense WW2 and a goal of the UK since the days of Bismarck. Germany will lose the contracts it has to support the Leopard 2 tanks if they are all replaced by Abrams tanks.
It brings NATO into closer conflict with Russia. Poland already had a large number of Leopard 2 tanks. It has been alleged that there are a lot of Polish army members currently fighting in Ukraine, officially as mercenaries or volunteers, but really just on assignment. Trained Polish troops could put the Leopard 2 tanks into action much quicker than trying to train Ukrainians in their use. This escalates the war and further drags NATO troops into active conflict in Ukraine.
I suspect that the Abrams tanks will take much longer to go into action. There are some technical issues with transferring Abrams tanks, in that their armor is highly classified and not allowed for export. The US sells Abrams tanks that are with different armor than the US tanks. The US is currently preparing tanks for export to Poland, for example. While the US has a huge stockpile of Abrams tanks, they just are not ready for immediate entry into the field. Moreover, the training and maintenance and logistics related to the Abrams means that there will be an even longer lag-time for them to see any action.
More likely, these will be stationed in far western Ukraine and likely manned with US personnel, no matter the representations otherwise. The implied end point for some time has been to secure western Ukraine from annexation and making it either a Polish protectorate or rump state and having US tanks in place in Lvov might help that come to pass.
TLdr version: the Leopard 2 tanks do not really help Ukraine and will only make things worse.
Brandon previously said he would not send tanks to Ukraine because it would start WW3 (which he apparently didn’t want to do). I notice this announcement of tanks into battle in Ukraine comes RIGHT on the heals of several findings of classified documents in his possession and a special counsel assigned to investigate…just sayin’…