Ukraine War Year 1 Grades
Well, year 1 of the Ukraine War (or special military operation for Russia) is in in the books and how does everyone grade out for their performance.
US — F
The United States, in following a long-term plan to use Ukraine against Russia, finally pushed Russia to war. Washington was caught off guard, as the War Party kept thinking it could push Russia around even more and Russia would never respond. The US unleashed unprecedented sanctions on Russia and did everything it could to destroy the Russia economy and it failed. The NordStream bombing was yet another blackeye. Kicking Russia out of SWIFT proved counterproductive. And even US super weapons have been shown to be overdeveloped and lacking endurance in the field, besides being countered mostly by Russian defenses.
Nothing here looks like a success, unless one counts the destruction of the European economy as a success for America.
Ukraine — D
Ukraine, in spite of having more troops in the battlefields and being fully supported by NATO weapons and assistance, has likely lost more than 200,000 troops, besides having half of people of Ukraine flee. The infrastructure has been devastated. 20% of Ukraine is still occupied by Russia and it appears Russia is about to conquer even more. Ukraine is at the mercy of NATO and cannot even negotiate.
The Ukrainians have done well-enough to not just give up, so it merits a D. However, to improve over that, Ukraine would need to reconquer territory, which is just not happening.
Russia — C
I was thinking of giving Russia a B, but it just does not deserve it. I know that Russia has used the war, in part, to just kill Ukrainian army units and destroy Ukrainian warfighting capabilities, rather than just take territory, but Russia failed to bring enough forces to hold its initial gains or to expand to the largest possible regions. We would not be having the Transnistria situation right now if Russia had gone all the way to Odessa last spring. Likewise, Kharkov could have fallen. Sure, the region in the Donbass would mostly be where it is currently, that is unless Russia had cut off resupply efforts.
China — A
China has supported Russia in this conflict, but has not sent any weapons to Russia. China is a clear winner so far. China has avoided becoming as engaged in Ukraine as NATO have done. China has also established improved relations with middle powers around the world, who are rallying to its push for state sovereignty.
And if Russia fails due to the war turning south, China is still in an ideal position to seize huge sections of Siberia. I don’t see China doing that currently, but it is positioned to do so if Russia faces a huge failure.
Poland — F
Poland is cursed to be located between Russia and Germany. Rarely throughout its history has it been able to be the dominant state of the three. More often is a battleground. Poland’s unfortunate history of being conquered by outsiders has proved badly previously, most importantly before WW2, when it allowed itself to be a tool for FDR against Germany. Poland is relying on US support and is quite the active player in the Ukraine matter, and now has lost large numbers of troops who were allegedly mercenaries, but really regular Polish armies are fighting. Poland has turned its biggest neighbor into an enemy. Given its likely connection with the NordStream attack, Germany, if it break away from NATO, will likely work with Russia to partition Poland again.
Germany — F
German industry has taken a huge hit from this war and sanctions. Germany was always a secondary target for the sanctions, not collateral damage. NATO was designed to repress Germany as anything else. Germany may be permanently harmed by the sanctions and the loss of Russian gas. The German people have been conditioned to be passive supporters of NATO and to ignore their own interests. At some point Germany needs to wake up. If not, it can remain a vassal state.
Turkey — A
Turkey has serious problems due to the recent earthquake. However, as to the war and Turkish diplomacy, it has been top notch. Turkey has not allied with Russia, but has not enforced the sanctions either. Turkey is a prime transit corridor for goods. Turkey also is being visited by Russian tourists, which are not welcomed in other countries these days. Turkey has improved relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, and other middle powers. Turkey was never accepted into the EU and Turkey fits better in its historic role as crossroad between east and west. It has not left NATO but exhibits the most independence of any NATO country and has since the Iraq War, when it refused to allow the 4th Infantry Division to attack from Turkey. Turkey may work out its issues with Syria even. Turkey has no reason to love America.
Iran — A
Iran has been a pariah nation for over 4 decades. Now it has become a major overland trade corridor for Russian goods as well as a major provider of drones. Iranian drones have been used successfully in Ukraine, so much so that an Iranian drone factory was just damaged in a sabotage attack. Still, with Russia and the rest of the BRICS and their new allies rejecting the sanctions system, Iran has more hope than in decades.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland — F
These four Baltic countries are playing a much dangerous game than Poland and that is saying something. None can exist free of Russia if Russia didn't let them. Annoying Russia is a really bad idea. Their leaders mostly appear to be young and foolish, many with ties to Davos. All of them will likely end up as Russian vassals, formally or informally. This a fate of their own creation, a result of the foolishness of their leaders.
NATO — F
NATO is finally on its deathbed, even if its doesn’t know it. It should have died with the Warsaw Pact. It is the Delian League of our age. NATO is really just evolved to be the American empire. Before the end of the Cold War, the institution of NATO was small, because it was a shell. Since the end of the Cold War, it has grown enormously, with a large bureaucracy and funding going out to think tanks and NGOs and the like. Washington’s Farewell Address called for no entangling alliances, and America should end NATO. Turkey and Hungary are already not cooperating. If France or Germany stop as well, it might be a fatal blow.
EU — F
The EU was supposed to lead to the United States of Europe. Instead, its adherence to anti Russia sanctions is going to weaken European economically, perhaps permanently. Germany was the industrial heart of the EU, but has been struggling without Russian gas. Some pundits, including economist Michael Hudson a year ago, have argued that the real US goal with the sanctions was hurting Europe. Tom Luongo argues Wall Street is at war with Davos and the EU is getting hit. In any event, like NATO, the EU is severely hurt by war it isn't even involved in and that might have been the goal of the war.
India — A
India isn't China and has a lot of disadvantages China lacks. It may end up only as a Tier 2 power and breaking into the top ranks, but it is making the most of the moment. India is wealthier today as it aids Russia avoid sanctions. New trade routes provide India with overland routes to trade. While Coins and India are still not friends, they are working together again. India was at the heart of the Non-Aligned Movement that created the term Third World, which originally meant outside of both the Western and Soviet Bloc. As such, it has been a long term goal to be free and sovereign. The Russo-Chinese push for sovereignty benefits India and it can avoid paying the costs. Avoiding negative consequences is a huge win.
Belarus — A
NATO attempted a color revolution in Belarus not long ago, and Russia helped prevent its success. Belarus is a definite junior partner to Russia, but isn't a vassal, yet. Unlike Poland, its troops are not dying in Ukraine. It has done enough to placate Russia while not getting deeper involved in the war. Sure, a wider conflict would include Belarus. Meanwhile, it is sitting on the outside without being actively involved, which is the best that Belarus could hope for given everything.