Has Putin's Restraint Led To NATO Escalation?
Sometimes the bully needs to be punched in the mouth
Throughout the entire Ukraine conflict, one of the most interesting aspects has been Russia’s restraint in the face of increased NATO involvement and provocations. While the Soviet Union was promised that NATO would no go eastwards from Germany if Germany was allowed to reunify, NATO expanded and expanded.
Finally, the 2007 Munich Security Conference meeting where the idea of adding Ukraine and Georgia to NATO was mentioned, Putin strongly drew redlines. It is as if they did not take Putin seriously, because they thought Russia could not do anything about it, just like Russia couldn’t do anything about it for the prior 2 decades.
And so they moved forward with using Ukraine as a weapon against Russia.
In 2014, the US conducted the Maidan Coup that led to this current path. Prior to this, the Obama administration had spent billions building up opposition forces to the elected Ukrainian government in order to install a puppet state that would be used as a weapon against Russia, with the goal of breaking up Russia. The plan was likely to attack in 2017 after Hillary gained the White House. Trump’s 2016 victory delayed the effort.
The US sent hundreds of millions of dollar of equipment to Ukraine over the next eight years. NATO officers trained the Ukrainian army, including Ukrainian Nazi groups. By 2022, the Ukrainian army was built up with the design of conquering Crimea and the Donbas, and maybe invading Russia.
Putin was very clear about his intentions. When the invasion took place in 2022, it was a modest and measured campaign. He didn’t invade with a million troops, but with a hundred thousand or so. He went to Kiev, but made no effort to occupy it. His goal was clearly peace talks, which took place. An agreement was made within months and Russia started withdrawing troops from Kiev in accordance with the agreement.
Instead, Boris Johnson went to Kiev and informed Ukraine it was not allowed to make peace. And so Putin changed the nature of his efforts in Ukraine. The efforts were still not “war”. Putin, a respecter of international law, as opposed to the American Rules-Based Order.
So, Putin withdrew his troops into more defensible positions. Rather than unleash the full force of the Russian army, he has kept his forces largely in defensive posture and killed Ukrainians in the hundreds of thousands.
American leaders would never show the restraint that Putin has. They would attack and attack and get overextended and fail. As such, they really do not get Putin. American leaders use international law as a tool, but don’t think it applies to America. For them, the American empire is the exception and allowed to do whatever it wants.
The missile strikes do not aim for military targets because terror is the goal. Allied WW2 bombing attacks were terror-focused as much as military-focused. I wonder how many of the bomber crews and fighter pilots that died knew that the true goal of their mission was terror.
I would suggest that Putin’s refusal to attack all out has encouraged NATO leaders to do even more ridiculous waste of people and resources. They would never do this…. and can’t understand why Putin does. They think if they just fight hard enough, they could make Putin come to the negotiating table on their terms. This is similar to the silly thinking during Vietnam. I shudder to think of all the lives ruined because of similar thinking back then. As a child and a youth, I knew a lot of these broken men, minds and souls shattered from war. To think it was all to try to force North Vietnam to the table on America’s terms, and never really did that. It was all just a waste that enriched and empowered the few.
Putin has no reason to negotiate unless it is on his terms. And he made his terms clear in 2021. Whatever is left of Ukraine must be neutral. NATO must be rolled back. The Russian speaking portions of Ukraine must be free. We have a long ways to go before Western leaders will accept that.
For the fortunes and lives spent, Russia is stronger today than 18 months ago and will likely strike out and conquer the Russia speaking areas of Ukraine over the next few months.
But Russia will likely not stop there. The pink areas will also be conquered and about half of the red regions. The remaining Ukraine will be much smaller and will likely have a Russian puppet as its leader. That is if Russia does not just conquer the entire country.
At this point, unless the US is willing to use nuclear weapons to prevent Russian conquest, there is no way to prevent Russia victory. Western leaders have given no basis for Russia to trust that the West will negotiate in good faith based or abide by agreements, as the West has violated its agreements with Russia over and over again.
Putin will operate on his own timetable and his own goals. It would be better for everyone if the West just accepts the defeat and moves on. But that will not happen. Western leaders will continue to escalate and escalate and try to bully Russia to the table on their terms, and will not accept defeat any time soon.
Nice analysis.
I agree with Razkolnikov below that Russia finally appears ready to move on the Ukes in earnest. Putin just announced Prigozhin's successor today, a retired Col. Troshev (now a Ministry of Defense employee, unlike Prigozhin), to lead Wagner back into Ukraine, presumably to hold down the fort there until the recent call-ups can be marshaled for large-scale movement this winter).
I find the Vietnam comparisons apt. Just as we, in our "we know better" hubris, overlooked the fact that the Vietnamese citizenry were simply fighting a war of independence (2,000 years of domination will do that to a people--doesn't matter if the "invader" is Chinese, French, Japanese, French again or American) rather than some high-minded ideological struggle, our Foggy Bottom and Pentagon nerds underappreciate the fact that Russia is actually quite hip to the fact that NATO is coming for their very existence as a nation and culture and using Ukraine as the springboard as has been done for centuries. They've had it and this conflict will end on their terms, not ours.
I guess the difference from Vietnam was that, back then, it was the nerds (like Ellsberg at Rand) who were telling the MIC honchos that the war effort was problematic. Now, the nerds at State are the true believers in neocon "reordering" fantasies, and are wagging the Pentagon "dog" deeper and deeper into conflict. We're pretty screwed when the kids who stayed inside at recess with the teacher are now living out their revenge fantasies by playing global tough guy.
I agree with this 100%. I suspect Putin is preparing to take the gloves off. This war is existentially historical for Russia; they cannot “lose” or even draw. NATO can afford to lose. And the Ukrainian people suffer immensely for NECON conquest dreams. What a waste.