I agree with Razkolnikov below that Russia finally appears ready to move on the Ukes in earnest. Putin just announced Prigozhin's successor today, a retired Col. Troshev (now a Ministry of Defense employee, unlike Prigozhin), to lead Wagner back into Ukraine, presumably to hold down the fort there until the recent call-ups can be marshaled for large-scale movement this winter).
I find the Vietnam comparisons apt. Just as we, in our "we know better" hubris, overlooked the fact that the Vietnamese citizenry were simply fighting a war of independence (2,000 years of domination will do that to a people--doesn't matter if the "invader" is Chinese, French, Japanese, French again or American) rather than some high-minded ideological struggle, our Foggy Bottom and Pentagon nerds underappreciate the fact that Russia is actually quite hip to the fact that NATO is coming for their very existence as a nation and culture and using Ukraine as the springboard as has been done for centuries. They've had it and this conflict will end on their terms, not ours.
I guess the difference from Vietnam was that, back then, it was the nerds (like Ellsberg at Rand) who were telling the MIC honchos that the war effort was problematic. Now, the nerds at State are the true believers in neocon "reordering" fantasies, and are wagging the Pentagon "dog" deeper and deeper into conflict. We're pretty screwed when the kids who stayed inside at recess with the teacher are now living out their revenge fantasies by playing global tough guy.
The difference is the meritocracy promotes midwits. As the Ivys have declined so have the quality of their graduates. Also, changes in the last 50 years also weakened our military to the point we mostly have incompetents.
I am developing a new historical analogy for Ukraine besides Athens' Sicilian adventure and Vietnam. Not only is it likely to be more on point, the consequences for America would be far worse no matter the outcome in Ukraine.
I agree with this 100%. I suspect Putin is preparing to take the gloves off. This war is existentially historical for Russia; they cannot “lose” or even draw. NATO can afford to lose. And the Ukrainian people suffer immensely for NECON conquest dreams. What a waste.
Putin is amazingly careful. He is extremely focused on complying with the letter of both Russian law and international law. He will strike when he has the perfect legal basis and when he has maximized the battlefield conditions.
When the war started, Russia occupied a lot of land very quickly, but was not prepared for war. It was about forcing negotiations. Since NATO refused to let peace happen, and since NATO is now his true opponent, Putin will engineer a NATO defeat.
Nice analysis.
I agree with Razkolnikov below that Russia finally appears ready to move on the Ukes in earnest. Putin just announced Prigozhin's successor today, a retired Col. Troshev (now a Ministry of Defense employee, unlike Prigozhin), to lead Wagner back into Ukraine, presumably to hold down the fort there until the recent call-ups can be marshaled for large-scale movement this winter).
I find the Vietnam comparisons apt. Just as we, in our "we know better" hubris, overlooked the fact that the Vietnamese citizenry were simply fighting a war of independence (2,000 years of domination will do that to a people--doesn't matter if the "invader" is Chinese, French, Japanese, French again or American) rather than some high-minded ideological struggle, our Foggy Bottom and Pentagon nerds underappreciate the fact that Russia is actually quite hip to the fact that NATO is coming for their very existence as a nation and culture and using Ukraine as the springboard as has been done for centuries. They've had it and this conflict will end on their terms, not ours.
I guess the difference from Vietnam was that, back then, it was the nerds (like Ellsberg at Rand) who were telling the MIC honchos that the war effort was problematic. Now, the nerds at State are the true believers in neocon "reordering" fantasies, and are wagging the Pentagon "dog" deeper and deeper into conflict. We're pretty screwed when the kids who stayed inside at recess with the teacher are now living out their revenge fantasies by playing global tough guy.
The difference is the meritocracy promotes midwits. As the Ivys have declined so have the quality of their graduates. Also, changes in the last 50 years also weakened our military to the point we mostly have incompetents.
I am developing a new historical analogy for Ukraine besides Athens' Sicilian adventure and Vietnam. Not only is it likely to be more on point, the consequences for America would be far worse no matter the outcome in Ukraine.
I agree with this 100%. I suspect Putin is preparing to take the gloves off. This war is existentially historical for Russia; they cannot “lose” or even draw. NATO can afford to lose. And the Ukrainian people suffer immensely for NECON conquest dreams. What a waste.
Putin is amazingly careful. He is extremely focused on complying with the letter of both Russian law and international law. He will strike when he has the perfect legal basis and when he has maximized the battlefield conditions.
When the war started, Russia occupied a lot of land very quickly, but was not prepared for war. It was about forcing negotiations. Since NATO refused to let peace happen, and since NATO is now his true opponent, Putin will engineer a NATO defeat.
NATO should have disbanded 30 years ago.