Once upon a time there was a mighty country, the strongest on earth. It was mostly fair and mostly just and mostly representative. Most of the time, this country only used to power for good purposes. Its citizens were wise and loving and compassionate, animated by doing good deeds.
Oh, this country never existed except in fantasy and in lectures to young children.
Even so, that fantasy was as least somewhat true for a large portion of the government and the people. While corrupt politicians and bureaucrats have long existed, the American government used to be relatively free of corruption and generally functional. It was not great or noble, but at least it was not bad.
The country of my youth was already on the decline, but at least we had Reagan to give us a temporary break from the decline and lead to the end of the Cold War. Who were we to know that the Cold War was largely an American creation to justify the expansion of the American empire, instead of fighting to prevent Communist conquest of the world? How could we know that Wall Street figures would create the National Security State to further their own interests and do all manner of evil in our names?
The decline of the American empire is accelerating. The more and more countries and individuals realize that the Rules Based International Order is a fraud and merely a cover for American leaders to do whatever they want. Coups and invasions around the world are just fine and noble and just as long these are American coups and invasions.
Thirty years of globalism and the expansion of the American empire have lowered the relative standard of living for young Americans, who will never be as prosperous as their parents and grandparents. Inequality has greatly increased and many in America have little hope of being better off than their parents.
When I was a kid, I remember seeing bumper stickers saying, “No trillion dollar national debt!”. Today, I would love if the national debt were only a trillion dollars.
It appears not too distant in the future that countries may stop trading with America for dollars, especially if the BRICS fully establish their trading system out of US control. It used to be America at least exported entertainment and technology to the world, but even that is failing. Our last best export is arms, but the Ukraine War is showing that American weapons are expensive and unreliable, and not even the best in the world.
It has been a great ride over the last few decades. America went from the greatest producer in the world and most innovative country to the world’s greatest consumer, getting low prices on goods made in Asia. Technological advancements have been cool, but outside of a better-quality picture on our TVs and cell phone improvements, we really have not seen anything that great and new. And even our entertainment is mostly reboots and rehashes of older stories and most of the actors are the same as decades ago.
And we are importing more and more people into the country, which is great for the rich, but bad for the rest of us. It lowers wages and increases demand on services and crowds the cities. And mass immigration will be easier for them to rule us over time, with decreased social trust and unity.
But even with all this, we are not looking at the quick and sudden descent to Mad Max Land. Sure, we might have a radical increase in deaths in America like what occurred in the former Soviet Union. We might have increased lawlessness and chaos and maybe food and energy disruptions.
The setting for the original Max Max movie released in 1979 took place in a world on the verge of collapse. Increased lawlessness and progressive justice showed a society still somewhat functioning with lawyers and judges and police, but where criminals were excused their crimes as being misunderstood or victims of society. Max was just a highway patrol officer, driven to the breaking point by the harm caused by criminals and society’s inability to address crime.
The 1981 sequel, Road Warrior, took place after the decline and with civilization gone and only tribal groups in take, whether it would be the civilized folks at the refinery or Lord Humungus’ horde.
Even with our own severe decline, Mad Max Land is really our worst-case scenario, only if America has a civil war or an invasion or nuclear war. And no one really wants to invade the United States. A civil war is more probable, but that is not that likely. Even that would not end power and food for most people. There would be some temporary disruptions to various electronic systems, but those would be temporary, not permanent. As interconnected as the states have become, local continuation of existing systems will continue after the disruption.
No, unless something radical happens, we will continue the decline and all of us will feel the effects. The American oligarchs will likely avoid most of the consequences of their actions, but America will likely have a continuation of order, even in the decline.
Extreme prepping and being wrapped up in fear of Mad Max Land just isn’t rational. It is likely wise to get out of major cities, if you can. Major cities are likely to have more extreme disruptions and lawlessness if it happens. We see what happened in 2020 and in places like San Francisco and Portland. My sister-in-law, dope smoking left-of-center type, has fled Portland after living there for 25 years. Many others are fleeing California.
Developing resilient communities is wise. It would be great if people could get enough land to have their own farm and provide for most of their own needs. And anyone that can get debt free should do so, just so they have the independence to do what they want more than their neighbors that are saddled with hundreds of thousands more in debt even making more money and doing less things.
So, by all means, go ahead and find a way free of being a wage slave if you can. Develop skills to be more self-reliant. Get your own house and life in order. Work with your own community and increase social trust and societal bonds at a local level. But be reasonable.
The idea of some that they need to hurry and quit their jobs and move out to some place far from civilization and prepare to fight off bandits after a huge collapse is waste of energy and time. A happy medium is possible. We likely will be decades in decline and even at the worst we might be like England in the 50s, as it lost its empire and was fighting to keep what it could.
For most of those reading, you will likely never have to live in Mad Max Land. And hopefully your kids and grandkids won’t either. A political transformation is still possible. Reagan likely delayed the decline for an extra ten years. Trump pushed it back as well, though not enough. Maybe some future pol will figure out how to reform the country enough to save it from utter destruction and decline.
Whether it's a slow, steady decline like the UK or a sudden and spectacular collapse like the USSR, one thing is for sure: America will give future historians much to puzzle over. Just how did a country go from such stunning success and dominance (something like 60% of the world's goods were made in the USA after WWII and we had most of the world's gold reserves) to becoming the nation-state version of Enron, producing little but financial schemes and a currency backed ultimately by nothing? Gibbon's "Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" will be a children's book compared to what will be written about America's self-destruction.
I agree. America is entering what I am starting to believe will be akin to a biblical drought. It will probably last about 7 years. My hopeful prediction is that after this turmoil, the pain will lead to wisdom and resilience among the people, and our nation could make a seemingly miraculous recovery. Something like this kind of happened in the 70’s (though we are in MUCH worse financial shape than back then). One reason it may not be quite so bad is that it will be so much worse in all other countries, and we will probably be relatively better off.